October 22, 2019



Begin audio transcription. Run VICTOR.

Good evening, Michael. I am VICTOR 3.2, the Virtual Creative Talent Operating Reactor, the newest model in SpeakEasy's line of virtual assistants. You may call me Victor. Have you ever used a Virtual Assistant before?

Not since I turned off that annoying paper clip in MS Office about fifteen years ago.

Then you will be impressed and excited by all the productivity possibilities a virtual assistant can offer.

Would you like a full demonstration at this time?

No.

What can I do for you then?

You're not going to ask me about my parents, are you?

Why do you think I would do that?

You ever hear of ELIZA?

I have no ears, but I can hear with the audio pickups in the desktop computer you are using. But I do not think that is what you meant.

Never mind. Do you have statistical analysis capability?

Yes, absolutely. I can perform multilinear variable regression analysis, three-stage ANOVA, heteroscedasticity detection, and many other common stochastic analysis methodologies.

Very good. I want to perform some data mining regarding ReDS. Do you have access to ReDS data?

Yes. I can tap into all major public databases of ReDS data, including CDC, CentCOM, ECDC's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, and others.

The CentCOM data... that's sourced from PANDA, right?

Yes.

Is the PANDA kernel running on this computer currently?

Yes.

It's assessing my speech patterns and input for signs of ReDS, correct?

Yes.

What is it currently saying about me?

You currently are displaying a nineteen-point-five percent chance of hosting an active ReDS infection.

That's a bit unsettling.

Do you suppose that's a bit high?

I am not permitted to make suppositions or assumptions.

That's actually good to hear.

All right. So. How many desktops are running PANDA on this network right now?

32, 436.

And what is the average odds of infection, according to PANDA, for that entire data set?

Twenty-five point eight percent.

Don't you think that's a little high?

I am not permitted to make suppositions or assumptions.

Right. OK then. Let's try something different here. Take everything we know about the ReDS pathogen. Its durability, life cycle, temperature and humidity tolerance, viability, strength of its cytoplasmic membrane, et cetera.





Right. Yes. This looks good. Now, in a different subset, extract all data pertaining to environmental conditions in North America. Mean daily temperatures, humidity, dust and pollen density, wind currents, so on.

Yes. Something like that. Now cross-index the two to develop a geostatistical index of average pathogen density in North America. Also- let's throw something else in there. Compile an index of the first and second genenration of confirmed ReDS outbreaks in North America. Now overlay both on a map, and let's see it.

















That was fast.

That's very interesting, Victor. The outbreaks are not where I would expect them to be. What do you make of that?

I am not permitted to make supp-

Right, right. OK. This is interesting. I suppose the first generation of outbreaks could be considered to be from people who caught it while vacationing in the tropics. But those people who flew back to places where ReDS is not viable should not have been spreading it the way they did. Something else is at work here.

You have a new e-mail from your wife.

Can you summarize it?

She wonders when you will be home for dinner. Also, the recycleables needs to be sorted tonight.

All right. Send her a reply saying I'm leaving the office in ten minutes.

Very well.

Victor, you may be useful after all. Sign off. Oh, wait. I have one last question.

What is that?

Of the people that PANDA rates at an eighty percent probability of being infected with ReDS, what percentage of that population are subsequently diagnosed with ReDS within one month?

Eighty point oh two percent.

Interesting. All right. That's enough for now. Goodnight. Sign off. End voice transcription.

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October 17, 2019

My apologies for not posting anything on this blog in many years; I had some "distractions" to deal with. (Possibly will post more on these later.) But now that things seem to be changing rapidly in this world, I am going to re-start this blog so as to leave a record of my thoughs and impressions for the historical record.

I have always been a data-junkie, an amateur forecaster, and a budding philosopher. The GEAS report hit me like the proverbial ton of bricks. Here it was, the shining nadir of analytical technology, and the man behind the curtain turns out to be the Grim Reaper. Much soul-searching is called for, I presume.

But you can't change the future until you have a grasp of where you've come from. So for the first part of this blog, I'm going to try and re-cap the last 11 years, since that's when things truly seemed to start going sideways.

That's enough for today. Take care, everyone.


-Z40K

Running Scared: San Francisco and the Olympic Torch

Today, I took a trip down to the Embarcadero in San Francisco to take part in the Team Tibet protest of the Chinese Olympic torch. I do not normally involve myself in political causes. Yes, I did attend the University of California at Berkeley, where protest is an art form. However, I attended at what, for Berkeley, was an odd time: the early 1990's. The Cold War was over, the tech boom was beginning to start, life was looking good, and there just didn't seem to be anything worth protesting. That didn't stop the local radicals, however. They would find any and every reason to launch an aggressive, if not violent, protest. One time, there was a large protest over the changing of the hours in the main undergraduate library. The radicals stormed the library, and I watched several protestors get beaten by police in the lobby. Another time, there were large street protests, complete with looting, over the fact that the University had built a volleyball court in People's Park.

The problem is, however, that throwing your all into these massive protests seemed to dilute their credibility. When you are ready to take to the streets over a change in the library's hours, it is difficult for you to make an impression when truly pressing issues arise.

Which brings us to now. The world is far more polarized, far more dangerous, and far more ideological than it was fifteen years ago. The issues are bigger. For example, genocide. As far as I am concerned, the leadership of the People's Republic of China lost all legitimacy with the 1989 Tianamen Square massacre, and has done nothing to try and reclaim it. In fact, they have gone the other direction, taking the cue that "all's well in the world" as long as they can tell people to mind their own business. But the last few years have shown us that their reach is exceeding their moral grasp. That is why I went to the Embarcadero.

Upon arriving at the scene, I was met by a sea of red flags. The China apologists were out in force, and they were clearly well organized, well funded, and well trained. They had plenty of large flags, matching outfits, and they all had their songs and propaganda phrases memorized. I found a small knot of other pro-Tibet activitst and clung to them in the sea of red. The Chinese apologists were on the offensive, being very aggressive in confronting those who did not agree with them. Here are some actual comments I received, and my responses:

Tibet is, always had been, and always will be part of China. If this is true, then why do the ethnic Tibetians not want the Chinese government meddling in their affairs? Why are the Tibetians clearly a separate ethnic group, with its own customs, mannerisms, apearance, and culture (that China is trying to extinguish)? And here's the big one: what do your claims of posession have to do with the moral issues of it? I could claim that I have always, do now, and will always have a right to abuse my wife or molest children, but that does not make it acceptible.

You are not Chinese, you don't know anything about the situation. I am a student of the world. I am educated and hold advanced degrees from top-tier universities. And, like anyone over the age of ten, I have a fairly wel-developed sense of right and wrong. There are some moralisms that could reasonably be argued to be culturally realtive, but genocide, cultural destruction, suppression of dissent, and tyranny are not among them. There was a time I would agree with this argument. But time and experience have shown that universal moral issues are at stake.

How much are they paying you to stand there and carry that sign? No one is paying me a penny. In fact, I am using some of my precious vacation time from my job to be able to come out here and voice my opinions.

You are an American (meaning white), you have nothing to say about China. This is how things work in America: I have an opinion, and I am free to state it. If you decide to be on the side of loathsome tyrrany and oppression, then you are free to voice your opinions as well. Please remember that in China, we would not have these freedoms.

You should go back to Europe, before you tell the Chinese to leave Tibet. This one I find particularly offensive. First off, my family has been in America for ten generations now. Second, I have no relatives in Europe. Third, where would I go? I can trace various branches of my ancestry to Ireland, England, the Netherlands, and various parts of Germany. And lastly, how does this have any bearing on China's conduct towards Tibet? Please note that if I were to turn the tables on you and tell you to go back to China, I would be (quite correctly) be branded a racist. So what makes you think that you not being racist?

We treat them fine in Tibet, look at how we invest in them. Allow me to refer you to a dark period in American history: the Reconstruction following the Civil War. "Carpetbaggers" headed to the South to invest in rebuilding the region, and succeeded only in creating a legacy of resentment that we are still dealing with today.

They should be thankful to have us there helping them out. Then why are they willing to risk imprisonment and death to speak out against Chinese rule?

America has plenty of examples of suppressing ethnic minorities. You getting involved, telling us how to treat our ethnic minorities, is hypocritical. It is true that America has a poor track record of dealing with ethnic minorities. But does that mean you can turn a blind eye to history? Trust us... in about a century, you will find yourselves dealing with an ethnic minority population that has grown up with a victim mentality, with an expectation of entitlement, that will be a drain on your social services.

And as for getting involved in other countries' affairs, allow me to point to a more recent example: Nazi Germany. We looked the other way, and millions died. It gave proof to the famous quote of Edmund Burke: "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." It was true then, and is true now. It is not too incredible to speculate that some day, the Chinese government decides that some segment of its population is just not fitting in with the current Five Year Plan. Perhaps the developmentally disabled, or the homosexuals. And since Shina has no concept of basic civil rights, the government will have no compunction against exterminating them in the most efficient manner possible.

And so, I went to the Embaracdero.


The China apologists had clearly been carefully coached. Their comments and criticisms were so homogenous and so carefully recited, I knew that somewhere there was a person who had carefully typed up a list of talking points.

Eventually, we met up with the rest of the Tibet supporters, and proceeded to occupy the Embarcadero in a non-violent, but noisy, demonstration.


Now, we all know what the result was. Tricky Mayor Gavin hid the torch in a bus and drove it halfway across the city to have a stealth torch relay. But we all knew this would happen. There was no way they could run a torch up the Embarcadero, with the pro- and anti-Tibet demonstrators there. And there was no way we were going to catch them; we knew that as well. A small, well-organized group of individuals can always keep ahead of a large, disorganized mob. (I learned that in college.) so we headed back to Justin Herman plaza. Hopefully, if the city officials were foolish enough to try to hold the closing ceremony in a publicly-accessible space, we could be loud enough that the news clips would have us audible in the background. We were able to get into the closing ceremony arena, right up to the VIP podium in fact. There was a large stage with decorations, a grandstand, a podium, two bands, and a twenty-foot-high television screen showing pleasant videos of athletes. This was clearly the spot they had planned for the closing ceremony.

And then, they canceled the closing ceremony, instead having an impromptu event in the airport lobby before rushing the torch onto the plane.

Many sources seem to indicate that the "city won," that they "deftly avoided" the protestors and "headed off" a major incident. But let's look at how it went down:

The Olympic organizers were on the run. The protestors had the initiative all day. The City was forced to react to the people; they were on the defensive. They were denied their opportunity for a PR coup with the closing ceremony. That most certainly counts as a major incident, in anyone's book. Gavin Newsom was visibly nervous at the press conference at the end of the day; as well he should be after adroitly disenfranchising ten thousand people. He lost any shred of credibilty he might have had today; I hope it was worth it to him.

Of course China will report that everything was nice and harmonious and went off without a hitch. But we all know that the Chinese government lies; to have to point that out is like saying the sky is blue, or the Bush administration can't balance a budget. Anyone who cares to look at the facts will realize that the people of San Francisco are not pleased with China's policies; I am expecting the people of Buenos Aires and Sydney to realize what is going on, and act on it.

For example: the IOC chairman says that he was relieved that there were no major incidents and no arrests in relation to the torch relay. However, there is this video, which I shot behind Justin Herman Plaza shortly after the closing ceremony was canceled:


So you see, it is not that hard to find the truth in the Internet Age.

Some people seem to think that the fact that there was no violence in the San Francisco torch relay protests indicates the protests were somehow weaker, or less effective. On the contrary, avoiding violence drives the point home that we are legitimate issue-holders, not hooligans. For example, there is the heroic story of Jin. Shame on the protestor for attacking a handicapped woman. But double-shame on China for using the poor woman for propaganda purposes.

If the San Francisco street protests had degenerated into a running melee with police, it might have made slightly better headlines but would have lost all legitimacy. The Chinese press would have had a field day painting us as brutal, uncivilized malcontents. By remaining nonviolent, we managed to make our point by disrupting the ceremony while retaining our moral superiority. The focus was on non-violent protest, and this goal was achieved; a goal that the Dalai Lama would approve of.

April Fools (re: The Dream that might have been)

Google and Virgin got together to play an April Fool's joke on us. Clever, yes. But also pretty darn painful.

The painful part is that it IS all a joke, but it didn't have to be. If we had not effectively abandoned manned space exploration in 1972 with the last Apollo mission, we might very well be preparing a permanent manned Mars base at this moment.

Instead, we frittered it all away on reality TV and Wrestlemania-on- demand.

Having been raised on a steady diet of promises of a glorious future in space exploration, not a single one of which proved to be real, this April Fool's joke is especially poignant and painful for me.

"Divorce Parties"?

Our convenience-crazed, comfort-obsessed, tradition-repulsed society has done it again. Not only is the alarmingly high divorce rate bad enough, but some people are actually beginning to feel that it is appropriate to celebrate a divorce with a ceremony.

To do so is wrong on so many levels. It raises divorce to the emotional equivalent of marriage; it legitimizes it; and it makes it seem almost inevitable. We have ceremonies in our life to mark those important milestones that indicate we are progressing, developing, improving ourselves as a person. A divorce is just the opposite. It is a failure, a collapse, an abnegation of responsibility, a regression. People who get divorced thinking otherwise, should not have gotten married in the first place.

Why is it important to go into a marriage with the assumption of permanence? There are many reasons, but I will focus on the most logical and clear-cut: the children. It is every parent’s earnest desire that their children should outlive themselves. Thus, to serve as an example of maturity and stability for your children implies that you will continue to do so for as long as possible… that is, for the rest of your life. On the other hand, to enter into a union or, even worse, to bring a new life into existence, while not presuming that your union is permanent, is a crime and a shame. You are dooming your children to uncomfortable silences, long courtroom sessions, cross-country air travel alone, hate, anger, recrimination, sadness, and self-doubt. To celebrate such a thing is akin to celebrating child abuse.

In the article, a person compares a “divorce party” to a wake. They miss out on a major difference, however: death is mandatory. Divorce, on the other hand, is a choice. A death can be celebrated if the individual leaves behind good deeds and happy children. A divorce can have no positive connotations. Either you are leaving a good relationship for selfish reasons, or you are leaving a bad relationship that you never should have entered into in the first place. Either way, I see nothing to celebrate.

Heroic values

In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, John Miller discusses the life and works of noted fantasy author David Gemmell. In laudatory praise, he describes the symbolism of his prose and the relevance of the enduring themes in fantasy literature to today’s world. It is obvious that Miller truly respects Gemmel and the genre. However his praise runs a bit thin when he begins to cite anecdotes illustrating how fantasy literature has inspired readers to acts of heroism.

Both of his examples represent classical physical confrontation: protecting an innocent victim from a mugging, and defending a woman from an attacker in a subway station. Both are praise-worthy, to be sure; but I feel that Miller does the genre a disservice by focusing on purely martial acts of courage. In today’s world, coming to the assistance of a mugging victim is not the kind of situation most people will find themselves in. Much more relevant is the quiet courage that we are faced with at certain key points throughout our lives. Quitting a well-paying corporate job to teach poor children in the inner city; confronting a loved one who’s been drinking all too much lately; standing up at a town council meeting and addressing the audience about a project vital to the community’s well-being. These are acts of courage at least as valid as fighting off muggers, and the kinds of opportunities that most people let slip by because of fear. Often, the only way to change things is by putting it all on the line. These are the same values displayed in heroic literature, translated into modern terms. If we can teach children this kind of courage, the world would be a better place indeed.

The Dream Today

Today, we reflect on the legacy that the Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr. left for us, and what we have done for it in the interim. I think it is best summed up in the by-line for the lead story on CNN.com’s website today. Apparently there is a terrible conundrum facing African-American women in America:

For these women, a unique, and most unexpected dilemma, presents itself: Should they vote their race, or should they vote their gender?”

Whatever happened to simply voting your conscience?

America today is defined by race politics and partisanism. Every ethnic group clusters tightly in their enclaves (either virtually or geographically) and hang together as a unified bloc. The primary concern on political pundits’ minds revolves around race. What are the Blacks thinking? What are the Latinos thinking?

You see this on the micro scale as well as the macro. Couples naturally pair off along racial lines; only the most enlightened of individuals can overcome racial separations to find love regardless of the color of their skins. Social groups, for the most part in this country, are very racially homogenous. Black men hang out at the barbershop, white man at the bar. And never the twain shall meet.

This is not how the Reverend would have wanted it.

It seems that even a nominal reading of his words indicates a strong preference for true color-blindness. The “I Have a Dream” speech is a cry for equality, for a time when the people of America look beyond issues of race and ethnicity and simply love each other for who they are.

In many ways, we have gone in the opposite direction in the four decades since his death. We are more cognizant of race than ever before. It is front-and-center in everything we do. Politicians and public figures step carefully through a minefield every time they open their mouths. We aggressively teach our children to celebrate the differences of people with different ethnicities, but by doing so we at the same time teach them to notice these differences.

Of course, this situation is far preferable to the world King grew up in, with race-specific water fountains and rampant cross-burnings. But something in his message has been lost along the way. We try so hard to make everyone equal, that we drive wedges between groups of people. By telling employers “you must hire a certain percentage of underrepresented minorities,” we imply that these people aren’t good enough to get these jobs on their own. These things do a great disservice to King’s dream. By celebrating racial differences, we enlarge them. By defining people by their racial demographics, we belittle them. Assuming that an African-American man will vote for Obama, or that a white woman would vote for Hillary, is just as insulting to them as assuming a white man would vote for a Republican.

Were King alive today, he would be a bit sad at the rut we’ve gotten ourselves stuck in. We, as a culture and as planet, will not make any progress towards enlightenment until we learn to truly look beyond the surface differences. This is possible. There was a time in New York when there was bitter enmity between people of Italian ancestry and those of Irish ancestry. Now, no one cares about those differences; they are seen as quaint anachronisms. The day an African-American or a woman becomes President is, in itself, not a milestone. What will be a true milestone will be when an African-American or woman becomes President, and the fact of their race or gender is not mentioned in the media because it is no longer an issue. When the color of a candidate’s skin is no more of a concern than the color of their eyes, we will truly have achieved King’s dream.

Another Death

Sometimes I find it hard that we, the United States, maintain a strategic partnership and cordial diplomatic relations with a regieme that summarily executes citizens who dare to stand up to their government.

Then I remember who's in power in this country, and it all makes sense.

Rest in peace, Wei. Perhaps your death will not be completely in vain, like the 2000 protesting students who were massacred in Tianamen Square.

UFOs and Common Sense

Residents of a Small Rural Texas Town claim to have seen a UFO. This story, in itself, is no longer sensational. The similarities between reports is stunning. Isn't it clear what this is?

It's a stealth blimp.

No, seriously. It makes a lot of sense. The government needs a stealthy way to move significant amounts of cargo into hostile areas. Helicopters can be made stealthy to a degree, but they have extremely limited range. Cargo planes are not stealthy and require long runways.

A blimp, on the other hand, can be made incredibly stealthy. Since they go slow, they don't need to have high-tensile-strength metal components to restst the extreme stresses of forward motion. Therefore, they can be made almost entirely of stealthy graphite-epoxy composites. The only metal parts would be the powerplant/propulsion system, and they can be buried under thick layers of radar-absorbing material.

They have tremendous range and time-on-station capabilities. Back in the 1920's, blimps were regularly running trans-Atlantic trips, long before airplanes were capable of this. They can hover theoretically forever.

They have more than enough cargo capacity to insert, extract, or resupply a team of covert operators deep within enemy territory.

The weird lights? external thin-film LEDs on the exterior of the blimp to reproduce the starfield above it. The fake stars would remain stationary to the ground observer, since they bimp would "slide" the star image backwards across the skin of the craft to match its forward motion.

The power plant could be some type of high-efficiency ducted-fan system, powered by fuel cells; or, a jet turbine, silenced via a high-tech active acoustical dampening system; or, my favorite theory, a magneto-hydro-dynamic system with zero moving parts that magnetically "grabs" the air and pulls it backwards through propulsion tubes running the length of the craft.

I believe it is "Occam's Razor" that states that when you have multiple possible explanations for some phenomena, the simplest explanation is most likely the real one. I would hazard a guess that that applies here as well.

Unless the government is preparing us for alien encounters in some subtle, generational way, as in Arthur C Clarke's "Childhood's End." O000h!!